Kornacki: Why the 2026 Midterm Election Results Are Historic
Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and James Talarico ended a 38-year drought for Texas Democrats in U.S. Senate elections.
November 9, 2026
When NBC News data analyst Steve Kornacki returned to the big board on TODAY on November 5, the biggest question had already been answered. Democrats had won control of both the U.S. House and Senate. The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats on election night and the House early the following morning. Kornacki focused on the scale of the shift and what it suggested about the voters who had returned President Donald Trump to office two years earlier. NBC segment via Yahoo · Trari’s segment recap · AP’s race-call timeline
The Senate map made the difference
The president’s party often loses ground in midterm elections, but Republicans had expected to hold the Senate. A series of Democratic wins changed that calculation. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina, Sherrod Brown won in Ohio, Adam Hamilton won in Kansas, and Josh Turek won in Iowa. AP called Senate control one minute after calling Turek’s race. Those results show how much of the Democratic gain came from races in states Republicans had carried in the 2024 presidential election. AP’s national results · AP’s race-call timeline
According to Trari’s recap of the broadcast, Kornacki used 1990 as a benchmark for the strength of the projected Democratic majorities. After that election, Democrats held 267 House seats and 56 Senate seats at the start of the 102nd Congress. The comparison concerns the size of the majorities. In 1990, Democrats kept control of both chambers. In 2026, they took both back. Trari’s segment recap · U.S. House historical records · U.S. Senate historical records
Texas broke a decades-long streak
In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom Trump endorsed. It was the first Democratic victory in a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988 and the party’s first statewide win since 1994, according to The Texas Tribune. The gains extended down the ballot. By November 9, AP reported that Democrats had also flipped the Texas House. The Texas Tribune · AP’s statehouse results
The AP Voter Poll found that voters under 30 and Hispanic voters moved toward Democrats compared with 2024. AP identified the Texas Senate race as one place where the shift among younger voters was evident. Those findings help explain Kornacki’s assessment that Trump’s 2024 coalition had frayed. Whether those voters stay with Democrats in a presidential election remains an open question. AP Voter Poll · Trari’s segment recap
What changes in Washington
Control of both chambers gives Democrats greater influence over which bills advance and which administration actions face hearings and investigations. The incoming Senate majority will also have a say in whether Trump’s nominees for federal judgeships and senior administration posts are confirmed. The size of that majority was still unsettled on November 9, when AP reported that ballots were still being counted in Mississippi’s Senate race. U.S. Senate powers and procedures · AP’s November 9 update
Source note. The full broadcast could not be accessed for this article. Descriptions of Kornacki’s analysis draw on Trari’s timestamped recap, and election results were checked against AP and The Texas Tribune. TODAY video
