Which INCLUDE THE FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE CORE PCE JOINING US NOW IS SYLVIA JABLONSKI DEFIANCE, CEO AND CIO, THAT IS QUITE A BIT TO DIGEST, GIVES US SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT SOMETHING TO WORRY ABOUT SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TO
Which DESCRIBES YOUR FEELINGS FOR THE DATA? What’S MOST IMPORTANT, > > GOOD MORNING JOE, I THINK NEUTRAL IS MY ANSWER. The BIGGEST NUMBER OF THE WEEK IS WHAT THE FED ACTUALLY DOES.
I THINK THERE’S A 96 % EXPECTATION WE GET ANOTHER FED CUT. It IS INTERESTING TO HEAR WHAT HE IS THINKING FOR 2025 AND IF THIS IS THE LAST RATE CUT FOR A WHILE AND HOW THE COMMENTARY LEANS, DOES IT LEAN, HAWKISH OR DOVISH? If THE DATA IS NO T IN LINE, I DO N’T THINK THERE WILL BE A HUGE MARKET REACTION EITHER WAY, BUT I THINK THE MARKET EXPECTS THAT CUT > >. Do YOU THINK SYLVIA THE FED JUST FEELS COMMITTED?
Do YOU THINK THE NUMBERS WE GOT LAST WEEK IF THEY HAD N’T PREPARED –, THAT’S A PROBLEM WITH FORWARD GUIDANCE, BECAUSE THE MARKET GETS ITS HEART SET ON CERTAIN THINGS?
Do YOU THINK IT IS THE RIGHT MOVE, GIVEN THE WARMER INFLATION NUMBERS WE SAW LAST WEEK, > >, YOU KNOW, I THINK YOU HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD THERE. When YOU SET FORWARD, HE CAN PEX EXPECTATIONS. It IS DIFFICULT TO GO BACK. It IS A BIT OF A HEAT UP HERE.
It IS POTENTIALLY SEASONALITY, THERE IS NOT THE CASE, THEY SHOULD N’T CUT THE QUARTER POINT THIS WEEK GOING FORWARD. I THINK IF THAT CHANGES – AND WE START TO CONTINUE TO GO IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, THAT WILL BE A PROBLEM AND WE WILL GO BACK. You KNOW I DO N’T THINK THAT THE DATA IS REALLY DONE ANYTHING TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS. Prices ARE STILL 22 % HIGHER THAN THEY WERE PRE-PANDEMIC.
We HAVE THE 2.7 MINUS FOOD AND ENERGY. If THE TRENDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD, WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A PAUSE ON THE CUTS. If IT DOES N’T, WE WILL SEE SPORADIC CUTS NEXT YEAR.
> > MARKETS AT NEW HIGHS,
Bitcoin TRADING AT 106: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE THAT INTEREST RATES ARE TOO HIGH RIGHT NOW OR RESTRICTIVE THE ECONOMY? You KNOW WE GET A GDP REVISION TEN-YEAR. We HAVE SEEN IT’S UNDER CONTROL. Where IS THE EVIDENCE IN THE JOBS MARKET?
Where ARE YOU SEEING THESE HIGHER RATES ARE TAKING A BITE AND NEED TO BE LOWER? > > YEAH? I THINK THAT’S A GREAT POINT. If WE LOOK AT CORPORATE EARNINGS JUST OVER THE LAST YEAR, IT DOES N’T SEEM THERE IS A LOT OF EVIDENCE RIGHT. That CORPORATIONS HAVE BEEN HIT BY HIGHER INTEREST RATES. You KNOW SORRY RESTRICTIVE POLICY. I DO THINK THAT THE SMALL CAPS FEEL IT
I THINK THESE SMALLER COMPANIES THAT INVEST IN GROWTH AND PARTICIPATE IN THINGS LIKE QUANTUM COMPUTING AND A.I AND NOT THE MEGA CAP NAMES. We KNOW
They ARE STRUGGLING, YOU ARE SEEING THEM ROAR THIS YEAR.
I LOOK AT THE QUANTUM STOCKS AND THE RATE CUT WILL HELP THEM ON R & D AND GROW, AND THEY GET A TAILWIND FROM THE TRUMP TRADE WITH ONSHORING. The SMALLER COMPANIES IS WHERE YOU FEEL IT > >. At THIS POINT, YOU FEEL THIS IS ANOTHER POLICY MISTAKE FROM THE FED. You DO N’T THINK SO. Go AHEAD.
> > YEAH. No, I DO N’T THINK SO. I DO N’T THINK HE IS GOING TO COME IN AND JUST YOU KNOW, CU EVERY MEETING GOING FORWARD.
We WILL SEE THE 96 COME TO FRUITION THIS WEEK AND WE WILL HEAR A LOT ABOUT WE’LL PAUSE FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT THE DATA LOOKS LIKE > >, YOU THINK INFLATION –, YOU THINK INFLATION’S BACK IN THE BOTTLE BACK IN THE GENIE BOTTLE.
Back IN THE LAMP > >, I THINK IT’S STEADY. You KNOW JUST GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. I THINK IT IS STEADY AND STABLE ONCE WE GET OUT OF THE HOLIDAYS AND SEE THAT NEXT YEAR CAN BETTER DETERMINE THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION.
I DO N’T THINK IT’S GOING TO GO THE OTHER WAY: > >, YOU LIKE THE MARKETS. Okay,
The SANTA CLAUS RALLY IN THE CARDS – > >, I LIKE THE MARKETS. There ARE A LOT OF GOOD PLACES TO PUT MONEY NOW, A LOT OF TRADES OUT THERE I MENTIONED QUANTUM
You HAVE IOQ, THIS IS THE
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